This didn’t get much play in the press, but it’s really big news. There appears to be a crack in the Axis of Evil love triangle between Iran, Syria, and Hamas. Last Friday, at a grand mosque in Cairo, Egypt, Hamas denounced Assad and overtly supported the opposition forces against him. I was a little stunned on a variety levels.
Iran and Syria have funded Hamas from its creation. They’re its sugar daddies, and Iran is definitely on the Assad bandwagon. Hamas has now made a conscious effort to literally bite the hand that feeds it.
Right off the bat, the pronouncement spits in the face of Iran’s statements that the troubles in Syria are caused by “western powers” fomenting and aiding the rebellion. It’s going to be hard for Iran to continue saying this with a straight face when one of the primary terrorist groups against those same western powers supports the rebellion.
Why, though? Why would Hamas, which even has an office-in-exile in Damascus – well, at least it did – choose to denounce Assad with so much hanging in the balance?
The doomsayers will state that it’s proof positive that al Qaida and other terrorists are behind the rebellion – something that Assad says as well – because why else would Hamas back it? Terrorists always back other terrorists, and Hamas wants to control the new government that comes into power. There is some truth to that statement, but the connection isn’t terrorism. It’s the constituency of Hamas and whom it sees as its future bankroll.
The population of Syria is primarily Sunni, as are the Palestinians in Hamas, while the leadership of Syria is Alawite– a Shia offshoot (debatable, but that’s what they claim). It was no doubt becoming harder and harder for Hamas to sit by the sidelines when its own members were getting a little aggravated by the Sunni bloodshed. Unlike Hezbollah to the North, a Shi’ite group firmly in Iran’s pocket, the constituency of Hamas was demanding action to support its Sunni brothers in Syria.
Even given that, it would take something more for the leadership of Hamas to thumb its nose at two of its greatest benefactors, Iran and Syria. I believe what tipped the scales was the Arab Spring in Egypt. Just a short time ago, Hamas had to deal with a hostile Arab country on its border of the Gaza Strip, namely Mubarak’s government in Egypt. In order to survive, it struck deals with Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria to help in its fight against Israel. Now, Egypt is on the verge of being run by the Muslim Brotherhood – the very organization that created Hamas in the first place when it was an Egyptian underground organization, ruthlessly hunted down in the shadows by Mubarak. It looks like Hamas now believes that the loss of material and political support by Iran and Syria will be offset by the new government of Egypt.
It remains to be seen whether Hamas supporting the revolt is a positive or negative to U.S. national interests. One thing’s for sure: It’s bad for Assad.
Brad,
I would like to hear your views on some of these questions. I wonder if Hamas’ voice of dissent says more about what is going on in Egypt than what is going on is Syria? The Arab-Persian Cold War is getting more interesting. Did Hamas leave the security of Iran/Syria too early? Or is this a signal to the West about how confident the Muslim Brotherhood is about their chances of dominating a new Eypgtian government? I noticed that Hamas declined to keep their meeting with Fatah leadership recently. This was suppose to be a meeting about joining forces for a unified Palestinian Authority. Any implications of the move away from Syria on the rivalry between Fatah and Hamas?
Good post as usual. Keep them coming.
Marc
Marc,
I don’t think they left too early. Assad is dead. He just doesn’t know it yet. All that remains is to see how long and how painful he can make his demise. I think Syrian/Iranian support for Hamas was a marriage of convenience to begin with, and Hamas is only too happy to “come back to the fold”, as it were. I also don’t think it’s a signal to the west. It’s a fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is going to dominate Egypt. No need to signal one way or the other. It’s just going to happen. As for Fatah, I’m not so sure what’s going on there. Just a couple of weeks ago Fatah and Hamas reached an agreement for a unity government in Qatar, then the Hamas leadership in Gaza immediately denounced it, causing me to scratch my head. Well, if you didn’t want them to negotiate a unity government, why’d you let them go to Qatar? I don’t know what’s going on with that. Maybe a split inside Hamas with one section wanting to work with Fatah, and another section saying it’s no longer needed because of future backing by the Egyptian government. Maybe they think they can get the whole enchilada and bury Fatah (which would work perfectly for Book III). But I’m just spitballing here. It would take a little research to see if I’m getting anything right with that comment.
Brad,
Ever consider doing non-fiction?
I thought that’s what this blog was. Are you saying I’m writing ficiton here? Just kidding. Maybe in the future, but right now I don’t have the time while writing fiction and doing security contracts.
Brad,
No no no..the blog is good. I like the fact that your perspective comes from a boots on the ground angle. It’s nice to have a non agenda, current event, type blog. However, there are only so many people in the world with your type of training, experience and knowledge. It would be advantageous to other leaders and future leaders to hear what you have to say on certain germane subjects. Don’t let that go to your head, just something to consider.
Hello everyone,
First time poster (came to the website looking for info on your second book!). If we continue along the ‘sugar daddy’ arc/theory, couldn’t we then suspect a decisive strike against the regime in Syria to come relatively quickly? Hamas wants to appease the Syrian Sunni’s and its new ‘sugar daddy’ by proving this isn’t purely political positioning for the inevitable end of Assad.
Hope this blog didn’t slow down your purchase. Just kidding. Any mililtary action requires two things: a. The will to act, and b. the capacity to act. In this case, while they might have the will, Hamas doesn’t have the capacity to project force from the Gaza strip to Syria to strike decisively. The rebels were just run out of Homs on foot – being chased by tanks. If Hamas had the capability to take on tanks, artillery, and fighter jets symetrically, force-on-force, they’d have done some serious damage to Israel a long time ago. Their way is the exact opposite of decisive. It’s the death by a thousand cuts using assymetric approaches until political will is lost. Hamas did say in its speech that a bunch of martyrs were marching to Damascus, but it remains to be seen if that’s just blowhard talk.
With today’s events taking place and reports of the pro Assad militia and their death squad like actions being reported after the tactical retreat of the rebels, I don’t see how Hamas or any other Sunni militant group won’t react. Like you said Brad, Assad is dead. There is no other way for him now. He either continues to kill off all opposition and rule or he is killed. He cannot bow out now and take refuge in another country etc…
It seems the maxim, “He who dares wins” holds true even if that daring is for despot purposes.